Impact of Lung Cancer on Health-Related Quality of Life, Financial Toxicity, and Household Economics in Patients From the Public and the Private Healthcare Sector in Argentina.

OBJECTIVES: Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is Argentina's first cause of cancer death. Most patients have an advanced stage at diagnosis, with poor expected survival. This study aimed to characterize the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and economic impact of patients treated in the private healthcare sector and compare it with that of the public sector. METHODS: We undertook an observational cross-sectional study that extended a previous study to a referral private center in Argentina. Outcomes included the EuroQol EQ-5D-3L (to assess HRQOL), Comprehensive Score for Financial Toxicity (financial toxicity instrument), Work Productivity and Activity Impairment - General Health (to assess productivity loss), and out-of-pocket expenses in adults diagnosed of NSCLC. RESULTS: We included 30 consecutive patients from a private healthcare center (July 2021 to March 2022), totaling 131 patients (n = 101 from previous public study). The whole sample had low quality of life and relevant economic impact. Patients in the private healthcare sector showed lower disease severity and higher educational level and household income. In addition, private healthcare system patients showed higher utility (0.77 vs 0.73; P < .05) and lower impairment of daily activities (41% vs 59%; P = .01). Private health system patients also showed lower financial toxicity as measured by the Comprehensive Score for Financial Toxicity score (23.9 vs 20.14; P < .05) but showed no differences when financial toxicity was assessed as a dichotomic variable. CONCLUSIONS: Although patients with NSCLC treated in a private healthcare center in Argentina showed a relevant HRQOL and economic impact, this impact was smaller than the one observed in publicly funded hospitals.

Beyond the dichotomy: How ride-hailing competes with and complements public transport.

Since ride-hailing has become an important travel alternative in many cities worldwide, a fervent debate is underway on whether it competes with or complements public transport services. We use Uber trip data in six cities in the United States and Europe to identify the most attractive public transport alternative for each ride. We then address the following questions: (i) How does ride-hailing travel time and cost compare to the fastest public transport alternative? (ii) What proportion of ride-hailing trips do not have a viable public transport alternative? (iii) How does ride-hailing change overall service accessibility? (iv) What is the relation between demand share and relative competition between the two alternatives? Our findings suggest that the dichotomy-competing with or complementing-is false. Though the vast majority of ride-hailing trips have a viable public transport alternative, between 20% and 40% of them have no viable public transport alternative. The increased service accessibility attributed to the inclusion of ride-hailing is greater in our US cities than in their European counterparts. Demand split is directly related to the relative competitiveness of travel times i.e. when public transport travel times are competitive ride-hailing demand share is low and vice-versa.

Availability, affordability and stock-outs of commodities for the treatment of snakebite in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Annually, about 2.7 million snakebite envenomings occur globally. Alongside antivenom, patients usually require additional care to treat envenoming symptoms and antivenom side effects. Efforts are underway to improve snakebite care, but evidence from the ground to inform this is scarce. This study, therefore, investigated the availability, affordability, and stock-outs of antivenom and commodities for supportive snakebite care in health facilities across Kenya. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study used an adaptation of the standardised World Health Organization (WHO)/Health Action International methodology. Data on commodity availability, prices and stock-outs were collected in July-August 2020 from public (n = 85), private (n = 36), and private not-for-profit (n = 12) facilities in Kenya. Stock-outs were measured retrospectively for a twelve-month period, enabling a comparison of a pre-COVID-19 period to stock-outs during COVID-19. Affordability was calculated using the wage of a lowest-paid government worker (LPGW) and the impoverishment approach. Accessibility was assessed combining the WHO availability target (≥80%) and LPGW affordability (<1 day's wage) measures. Overall availability of snakebite commodities was low (43.0%). Antivenom was available at 44.7% of public- and 19.4% of private facilities. Stock-outs of any snakebite commodity were common in the public- (18.6%) and private (11.7%) sectors, and had worsened during COVID-19 (10.6% versus 17.0% public sector, 8.4% versus 11.7% private sector). Affordability was not an issue in the public sector, while in the private sector the median cost of one vial of antivenom was 14.4 days' wage for an LPGW. Five commodities in the public sector and two in the private sector were deemed accessible. CONCLUSIONS: Access to snakebite care is problematic in Kenya and seemed to have worsened during COVID-19. To improve access, efforts should focus on ensuring availability at both lower- and higher-level facilities, and improving the supply chain to reduce stock-outs. Including antivenom into Universal Health Coverage benefits packages would further facilitate accessibility.

The utilisation of public and private health care among Australian women with diabetes: Findings from the 45 and Up Study.

AIM: To describe the prevalence of health care utilisation and out-of-pocket expenditure associated with the management of diabetes among Australian women aged 45 years and older. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey design. METHODS: The questionnaire was administered to 392 women (a cohort of the 45 and Up Study) reporting a diagnosis of diabetes between August and November 2016. It asked about the use of conventional medicine, complementary medicine (CM) and self-prescribed treatments for diabetes and associated out-of-pocket spending. RESULTS: Most women (88.3%; n = 346) consulted at least one health care practitioner in the previous 12 months for their diabetes; 84.6% (n = 332) consulted a doctor, 44.4% (n = 174) consulted an allied health practitioner, and 20.4% (n = 80) consulted a CM practitioner. On average, the combined annual out-of-pocket health care expenditure was AU$492.6 per woman, which extrapolated to approximately AU$252 million per annum. Of this total figure, approximately AU$70 million was spent on CM per annum. CONCLUSIONS: Women with diabetes use a diverse range of health services and incur significant out-of-pocket expense to manage their health. The degree to which the health care services women received were coordinated, or addressed their needs and preferences, warrants further exploration. Limitations of this study include the use of self-report and inability to generalise findings to other populations.

How wide is the gap? Examining gender income disparities among private career college graduates.

Research on gender wage gaps among recent graduates in Canada has ignored the private career college (PCC) sector. By virtue of the structure, composition and positioning of PCCs in Canada, along with the occupations they service, we argue that PCC graduates are an interesting population through which to study gender disparities. Drawing on an underutilized but rich dataset, we perform a series of exploratory multivariate analyses and estimate a gender income gap of approximately 5.3%. Though modest, this gap survives extensive robustness checks, with few notable exceptions. We theorize the implications of our findings for future policymaking and research.

Les recherches sur les écarts salariaux entre les sexes parmi les nouveaux diplômés au Canada ont ignoré le secteur des collèges privés d'enseignement professionnel (CPIP). En raison de la structure, de la composition et du positionnement des PCC au Canada, ainsi que des professions qu'ils desservent, nous soutenons que les diplômés des PCC constituent une population intéressante pour l'étude des disparités entre les sexes. En nous appuyant sur un ensemble de données sous-utilisé mais riche, nous effectuons une série d'analyses exploratoires multivariées et estimons un écart de revenu entre les sexes d'environ 5,3 %. Bien que modeste, cet écart résiste à des contrôles de robustesse approfondis, à quelques exceptions notables près. Nous théorisons les implications de nos résultats pour l'élaboration des politiques et la recherche futures.

Retirement, Pensions, and Depressive Symptoms Among Older Adults in China, England, Mexico, and the United States.

This study explores the associations of retirement, and of public and private pensions, with older adults' depressive symptoms by comparing differences between countries and age groups. Harmonized data were analyzed from the family of Health and Retirement Study in 2012-2013 from China, England, Mexico, and the United States (n = 97,978). Respondents were asked if they were retired and received public or private pensions. Depressive symptom was measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Retirement was significantly associated with higher depressive symptoms for the United States and with lower depressive symptoms for Mexico and England. Public pension was significantly associated with lower depressive symptoms for Mexico and with higher depressive symptoms for the United States and China. Private pension was significantly associated with lower depressive symptoms for the United States, China, and England. Our study shows that continuity theory demonstrates cross-national variation in explaining the association between retirement and depressive symptoms.

Faculty of Radiation Oncology 2018 workforce census: the status of the radiation oncology workforce in New Zealand.

AIM: This paper outlines the results of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists (RANZCR) Faculty of Radiation Oncology (FRO) 2018 workforce census. Here we report the responses of New Zealand radiation oncologists and trainees in order to understand characteristics of the New Zealand radiation oncology workforce. METHOD: The workforce census was conducted online during July-September 2018. Distribution was by Survey Monkey to all radiation oncologists (fellows, life members, educational affiliates, retired) and trainees on the RANZCR membership database, including members from Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. All responses were aggregated for analysis. This paper addresses only responses from New Zealand members. The census was designed to explore issues relevant to the New Zealand workforce, and questions from previous workforce censuses were repeated in order to monitor trends. RESULTS: The response rate for New Zealand radiation oncologists was 73.3% (44/60). The majority (67%) were male. The average age was 50.8 years. Three-fifths (59.5%) reported New Zealand ethnicity. One-third obtained their specialist qualifications outside of Australia and New Zealand. Most worked in the public sector only (63.4%), with only two in exclusive private practice. Most radiation oncologists attained a consultant post immediately on completion of training, but there were 26 who pursued an overseas fellowship. Most worked one full-time equivalent or greater (FTE), with 17.5% working less than 1.0 FTE. Radiation oncologists reported working a median of 50.0 hours per week, with half working over 10 hours above their contracted hours. Most time was spent on clinical duties with minimal time spent on research. Radiation oncologists reported seeing an average of 235 new patients per year (median: 230). Leadership positions were held by 21/43 respondents. Within 15 years, 55% of the current workforce reported an intention to retire, including 30% of those currently practising highly specialised brachytherapy. Females in the workforce were less likely to work fulltime and spent less time in research and management activities. All trainees reported full-time work, although 50% expressed a desire for part-time training. Half of the trainees reported working 6-10 hours on call, and 60% reported two or less hours of protected teaching per week. Despite this, 90% of trainees were satisfied with their career choice. CONCLUSIONS: Radiation oncology is a small specialty in New Zealand, with a significant reliance on overseas-trained specialists. The specialty continues to work significant overtime hours while time spent on research and non-clinical duties remains low. The growth in staffing between the 2014 and 2018 census has been low. Trainee numbers do not appear sufficient to meet the demand for replacing staff, due to retirements and the reduction of hours. Radiation intervention rates are low in New Zealand, but growth would be reliant on an expansion of the workforce beyond simply replacing staff losses. The radiation oncology workforce in New Zealand remains vulnerable, and careful consideration must be given to expansion and retention to ensure a viable workforce for the future.

Tiered healthcare in South Africa exposes deficiencies in management and more patients with infectious etiology of primary adrenal insufficiency.

OBJECTIVE: We wished to determine the prevalence, etiology, presentation, and available management strategies for primary adrenal insufficiency (PAI) in South Africa (SA), hypothesizing a prevalence greater than the described 3.1 per million. There is great inequity in healthcare allocation, as two parallel healthcare systems exist, potentially modifying PAI patients' clinical profiles, private being better resourced than public healthcare. METHODS: An online survey of physicians' experience relating to PAI. RESULTS: The physicians were managing 811 patients, equal to a prevalence of 14.2 per million. Likely causes of PAI in public/ academic vs private settings included: AIDS-related [304 (44.8%) vs 5 (3.8%); p<0.001], tuberculosis [288 (42.5%) vs 8 (6.0%); p<0.001], autoimmune disease [50 (7.4%) vs 88 (66.2%); p<0.001], malignancy [27 (4.0%) vs 7 (5.3%); p = 0.500], genetic including adrenoleukodystrophy (ALD) [5 (0.7%) vs 16 (12.0%); p<0.001], respectively. Overall, more patients presented with nausea [101 (74.3%) and vomiting 89 (65.9%), than diarrhoea 76 (58.9%); p = 0.008 and 126 (15.5%) in adrenal crisis. Features suggestive of a crisis were hypoglycaemia [40 (78.4%) vs 42 (48.8%); p = 0.001], shock [36 (67.9%) vs 31(36.9%); p<0.001], and loss of consciousness [25 (52.1%) vs 27 (32.9%); p = 0.031]. Greater unavailability of antibody testing in the public vs. the private sector [32 (66.7%) vs 30 (32.1%); p = 0.001], [serum-ACTH 25 (52.1%) vs 16 (19.5%); p<0.001] and glucocorticoids were [26 (54.2%) vs 33 (40.2%); p = 0.015]. Many patients, 389(66.7%) were not using identification, indicating that they need steroids in an emergency. CONCLUSION: A survey of South African physicians suggests a higher prevalence than previously reported. Patients presented with typical symptoms, and 15.5% presented in adrenal crisis. Significant disparities in the availability of physicians' expertise, diagnostic resources, and management options were noted in the public versus private settings. Greater awareness among health practitioners to timeously diagnose PAI is required to prevent a life-threatening outcome.

Where Do Caregivers Take Their Sick Children for Care? An Analysis of Care Seeking and Equity in 24 USAID Priority Countries.

Pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria are leading causes of under-5 mortality. Accelerated reductions in illness burden are needed to meet childhood Sustainable Development Goals. Understand-ing where parents take sick children for care is key to improving equitable, high-quality treatment for these childhood illnesses and catalyzing reductions in morbidity and mortality. We analyzed the most recent Demographic and Health Survey data in 24 of the United States Agency for International Development's maternal and child health priority countries to examine levels and sources of care for children sick with 3 illness classifications: symptoms of acute respiratory infection, diarrhea, or fever. On average, across countries analyzed, one-third of children had recent experience with at least 1 of the 3 classifications. The majority (68.2%) of caregivers sought external advice or treatment for their sick children, though the level is far higher for the wealthiest (74.3%) than poorest (63.1%) families. Among those who sought out-of-home care, 51.1% used public sources and 42.5% used private-sector sources. Although sources for sick child care varied substantially by region and country, they were consistent across the 3 illness classifications. Urban and wealthier families reported more use of private sources compared with rural and poorer families. Though 35.2% of the poorest families used private sources, most of these (57.2%) were retail outlets like pharmacies and shops, while most wealthier families who sought care in the private sector went to health facilities (62.4%). Efforts to strengthen the quality of integrated management of sick child care must therefore reach both public and private facilities as well as private pharmacies, shops, and other retail outlets. Stakeholders across sectors must collaborate to reach all population groups with high-quality child health services and reduce disparities in care-seeking behaviors. Such cross-sectoral efforts will build clinical and institutional capacity and more efficiently allocate resources, ultimately resulting in stronger, more resilient health systems.

Insurance Type and Surgical-Patient Characteristics in the UPR-Affiliated Hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: The characteristics of surgical patients were examined according to type of health insurance to determine whether differences existed between these groups. METHODS: We evaluated the characteristics of cases in the UPR General Surgery Department's database (entered from January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018) by insurance type. The variables examined included age, gender, inpatient/outpatient status, wound classification, type of surgery, American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) scores and whether a given patient had diabetes, was a smoker, or suffered from hypertension. This database had no trauma cases. RESULTS: Information was available for 5,097 cases during the study period. The mean age of the group was 51 (±22) years. The gender distribution indicated that 56% were women and 44% were men. The insurance types were distributed as follows: government/no insurance, 40%; Medicare, 12%; and private insurance, 48%. The government-insured/uninsured patients were younger (mean age, 41 ±24) and had had emergency surgery more frequently (18%) than had privately insured patients (10%). Medicare patients were significantly older (mean age, 72 ±12), and had had higher incidences of diabetes (46%) and hypertension (81%), presenting with ASA scores greater than or equal to 3 in 73% of cases. More privately insured individuals than those in other groups had had elective surgery (90%); 48% had been outpatients when they had their surgery, 58% had had clean wounds, and 61% of the patients having elective surgery were women. CONCLUSION: There were significant differences (P<.05) in the characteristics of patients with different types of health insurance. The frequency of emergency surgery was found to be significantly higher in the government-insured/uninsured group than in the privately insured group.

COVID-19 - The Availability of ICU Beds in Brazil during the Onset of Pandemic.

Background: Brazil faces some challenges in the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, including: the risks for cross-infection (community infection) increase in densely populated areas; low access to health services in areas where the number of beds in intensive care units (ICUs) is scarce and poorly distributed, mainly in states with low population density. Objective: To describe and intercorrelate epidemiology and geographic data from Brazil about the number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds at the onset of COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The epidemiology and geographic data were correlated with the distribution of ICU beds (public and private health systems) and the number of beneficiaries of private health insurance using Pearson's Correlation Coefficient. The same data were correlated using partial correlation controlled by gross domestic product (GDP) and number of beneficiaries of private health insurance. Findings: Brazil has a large geographical area and diverse demographic and economic aspects. This diversity is also present in the states and the Federal District regarding the number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and case fatality rate. The effective management of severe COVID-19 patients requires ICU services, and the scenario was also dissimilar as for ICU beds and ICU beds/10,000 inhabitants for the public (SUS) and private health systems mainly at the onset of COVID-19 pandemic. The distribution of ICUs was uneven between public and private services, and most patients rely on SUS, which had the lowest number of ICU beds. In only a few states, the number of ICU beds at SUS was above 1 to 3 by 10,000 inhabitants, which is the number recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Conclusions: Brazil needed to improve the number of ICU beds units to deal with COVID-19 pandemic, mainly for the SUS showing a late involvement of government and health authorities to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Preferences of physicians for public and private sector work.

BACKGROUND: The public-private mix of healthcare remains controversial. This paper examines physicians' preferences for public sector work in the context of dual practice, whilst accounting for other differences in the characteristics of jobs. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment is conducted with data from 3422 non-GP specialists from the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL) panel survey of physicians. RESULTS: Physicians prefer to work in the public sector, though the value of working in the public sector is very small at 0.14% of their annual earnings to work an additional hour per week. These preferences are heterogeneous. Contrary to other studies that show risk averse individuals prefer public sector work, for physicians, we find that those averse to taking career or clinical risks prefer to work in the private sector. Those with relatively low earnings prefer public sector work and those with high earnings prefer private sector work, though these effects are small. CONCLUSIONS: Other job characteristics are more important than the sector of work, suggesting that these should be the focus of policy to influence specialist's allocation of time between sectors.

A review of access to cancer facilities in Punjab, Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Punjab is the most populous province of Pakistan, with only 12 countries in the world succeeding it in terms of population. AIMS: This review article has the objective of providing novel statistics regarding available cancer therapeutics in Punjab across four different sectors-including government, semi-private, trust and private sectors. METHODS AND RESULTS: Keywords such as "cancer treatment," "facilities," "Pakistan," were used to search Pubmed Database. 36 results were generated: after sifting based on a personal reference list as well as for relevance, 16 articles were finally reviewed. Novel statistics regarding current state of access to cancer facilities were drawn from personal references as well as from studies conducted in other LMICs. There is a gross deficit of oncological services in Punjab, with the ratio of medical oncologists to population being 0.027 per 100, 000, and every oncologist checking 1300-1500 patients annually. Only 21.4% of the population has access to radiotherapy facilities. Major problems include lack of healthcare professional awareness; poor infrastructure including drug access, radiotherapy, and cancer pain management facilities; lack of planning; and lack of educational and research programs. CONCLUSIONS: Improving education & training, developing infrastructure based on public-private-partnership models, building cancer registries and organizing national cancer screening programs, as well as encouraging basic health education and research in oncology, are measures that can ensure Punjab's healthcare delivery system becomes capable of handling increasing incident burden of cancer.

A review of the public sector substance use disorder treatment and prevention systems in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The burden of substance use disorders in sub-Saharan Africa has been projected to increase by an estimated 130% by 2050. Despite this, little is known about the substance use disorder treatment and prevention systems in the region. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review is to describe the public sector substance use disorder treatment and prevention systems in Kenya guided by the World Health Organization health systems framework model, with the aim of informing decision-making. METHODS: We reviewed official government documents obtained from hand-searching the websites of relevant governmental organizations including: Ministry of Health, National Authority for the Campaign Against Alcohol and Drug Abuse, Parliament of Kenya, Ministry of Treasury & National Planning, National Law Reporting Council, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, the National Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) Coordination Board and the 47 County Governments. We augmented those searches with official documents that the authors were aware of by virtue of being practitioners in the field. Draft and retired documents were excluded. The findings of the search are presented as a narrative review. DISCUSSION: The Mental Health Act 1989, the main legislative framework governing substance use disorder treatment and prevention, focuses on institutional care only. While there are only three public health facilities offering substance use disorder treatment in Kenya, several non-public sector actors are involved in SUD treatment and prevention activities. Unfortunately, there is limited cross-sector collaboration. The Ministry of Health has no specific budget for substance use disorder treatment and prevention, while the National Authority for the Campaign Against Alcohol and Drug Abuse has an annual resource gap of about US$ 5,000,000. The substance use disorder workforce in Kenya has not been characterized. CONCLUSION: We propose five key strategies for strengthening substance use disorder treatment and prevention systems in Kenya including: (1) Enactment of the Mental Health (Amendment) bill 2018. (2) Integration of substance use disorder treatment and prevention into primary health care to increase access to care. (3) Utilization of money from taxation of alcohol, tobacco and betting to increase funding for substance use disorder treatment and prevention. (4) Characterization of the substance use disorder workforce to inform planning. (5) Enhanced collaboration between the government and non-state actors in order to increase access to SUD treatment and prevention.

Health system's readiness to provide cardiovascular, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease related services in Nepal: analysis using 2015 health facility survey.

BACKGROUND: The burgeoning rise of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is posing serious challenges in resource constrained health facilities of Nepal. The main objective of this study was to assess the readiness of health facilities for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) services in Nepal. METHODS: This study utilized data from the Nepal Health Facility Survey 2015. General readiness of 940 health facilities along with disease specific readiness for CVDs, diabetes, and CRDs were assessed using the Service Availability and Readiness Assessment manual of the World Health Organization. Health facilities were categorized into public and private facilities. RESULTS: Out of a total of 940 health facilities assessed, private facilities showed higher availability of items of general service readiness except for standard precautions for infection prevention, compared to public facilities. The multivariable adjusted regression coefficients for CVDs (ß = 2.87, 95%CI: 2.42-3.39), diabetes (ß =3.02, 95%CI: 2.03-4.49), and CRDs (ß = 15.95, 95%CI: 4.61-55.13) at private facilities were higher than the public facilities. Health facilities located in the hills had a higher readiness index for CVDs (ß = 1.99, 95%CI: 1.02-1.39). Service readiness for CVDs (ß = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.04-1.23) and diabetes (ß = 1.78, 95%CI: 1.23-2.59) were higher in the urban municipalities than in rural municipalities. Finally, disease-related services readiness index was sub-optimal with some degree of variation at the province level in Nepal. Compared to province 1, province 2 (ß = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.73-0.95) had lower, and province 4 (ß =1.24, 95%CI: 1.07-1.43) and province 5 (ß =1.17, 95%CI: 1.02-1.34) had higher readiness index for CVDs. CONCLUSION: This study found sub-optimal readiness of services related to three NCDs at the public facilities in Nepal. Compared to public facilities, private facilities showed higher readiness scores for CVDs, diabetes, and CRDs. There is an urgent need for policy reform to improve the health services for NCDs, particularly in public facilities.

Children drinking private well water have higher blood lead than those with city water.

Although the Flint, Michigan, water crisis renewed concerns about lead (Pb) in city drinking water, little attention has been paid to Pb in private wells, which provide drinking water for 13% of the US population. This study evaluates the risk of Pb exposure in children in households relying on private wells. It is based on a curated dataset of blood Pb records from 59,483 North Carolina children matched with household water source information. We analyze the dataset for statistical associations between children's blood Pb and household drinking water source. The analysis shows that children in homes relying on private wells have 25% increased odds (95% CI 6.2 to 48%, P < 0.01) of elevated blood Pb, compared with children in houses served by a community water system that is regulated under the Safe Drinking Water Act. This increased Pb exposure is likely a result of corrosion of household plumbing and well components, because homes relying on private wells rarely treat their water to prevent corrosion. In contrast, corrosion control is required in regulated community water systems. These findings highlight the need for targeted outreach to prevent Pb exposure for the 42.5 million Americans depending on private wells for their drinking water.

The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios. / Pandemia por COVID-19 no Brasil: análise da demanda e da oferta de leitos hospitalares e equipamentos de ventilação assistida segundo diferentes cenários.

This study aims to analyze the pressure on the Brazilian health system from the additional demand created by COVID-19. The authors performed a series of simulations to estimate the demand for hospital beds (health micro-regions) as well as to ICU beds, and mechanical ventilators (health macro-regions) under different scenarios of intensity (infection rates equivalent to 0.01, 0.1, and 1 case por 100 inhabitants) and time horizons (1, 3, and 6 months). The results reveal a critical situation in the system for meeting this potential demand, with numerous health micro-regions and macro-regions operating beyond their capacity, compromising the care for patients, especially those with more severe symptoms. The study presents three relevant messages. First, it is necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the Brazilian population, allowing more time for the reorganization of the supply and relieve the pressure on the health system. Second, the expansion of the number of available beds will be the key. Even if the private sector helps offset the deficit, the combined supply from the two sectors (public and private) would be insufficient in various macro-regions. The construction of field hospitals is important, both in places with a history of "hospital deserts" and in those already pressured by demand. The third message involves the regionalized organization of health services, whose design may be adequate in situations of routine demand, but which suffer additional challenges during pandemics, especially if patients have to travel long distances to receive care.

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a pressão sobre o sistema de saúde no Brasil decorrente da demanda adicional gerada pela COVID-19. Para tanto, foi realizado um conjunto de simulações para estimar a demanda de leitos gerais (microrregiões de saúde), leitos de UTI e equipamentos de ventilação assistida (macrorregiões de saúde) em diferentes cenários, para intensidade (taxas de infecção equivalentes a 0,01, 0,1 e 1 caso por 100 habitantes) e horizontes temporais (1, 3 e 6 meses). Os resultados evidenciam uma situação crítica do sistema para atender essa demanda potencial, uma vez que diversas microrregiões e macrorregiões de saúde operariam além de sua capacidade, comprometendo o atendimento a pacientes principalmente aqueles com sintomas mais severos. O estudo apresenta três mensagens relevantes. Em primeiro lugar, é necessário reduzir a velocidade de propagação da COVID-19 na população brasileira, permitindo um tempo maior para a reorganização da oferta e aliviando a pressão sobre o sistema de saúde. Segundo, é necessário expandir o número de leitos disponíveis. Ainda que o setor privado contribua para amortecer o déficit de demanda, a oferta conjunta dos dois setores não seria suficiente em várias macrorregiões. A construção de hospitais de campanha é importante, tanto em locais onde historicamente há vazios assistenciais como também naqueles onde já se observa uma pressão do lado da demanda. A terceira mensagem diz respeito à organização regionalizada dos serviços de saúde que, apesar de adequada em situações de demanda usual, em momentos de pandemia este desenho implica desafios adicionais, especialmente se a distância que o paciente tiver de percorrer for muito grande.

El objetivo de este estudio es analizar la presión sobre el sistema de salud brasileño, ocasionada por la demanda adicional de camas hospitalarias y equipos de ventilación mecánica, generada por el COVID-19. Para tal fin, se realizó un conjunto de simulaciones, con el fin de estimar la demanda de camas generales (microrregiones de salud), camas de UTI y equipamientos de ventilación asistida (macrorregiones de salud) en diferentes escenarios, según la intensidad (tasas de infección equivalentes a 0,01, 0,1 y 1 caso por 100 habitantes) y horizontes temporales (1, 3 y 6 meses). Los resultados evidencian una situación crítica del sistema para atender esa demanda potencial, ya que diversas microrregiones y macrorregiones de salud operarían más allá de su capacidad, comprometiendo la atención a pacientes principalmente aquellos con los síntomas más graves. El estudio presenta tres mensajes relevantes. En primer lugar, es necesario reducir la velocidad de propagación del COVID-19 en la población brasileña, permitiendo un tiempo mayor para la reorganización de la oferta y aliviando la presión sobre el sistema de salud. En segundo lugar, es necesario expandir el número de camas disponibles. A pesar de que el sector privado contribuya a amortiguar el déficit de demanda, la oferta conjunta de los dos sectores no sería suficiente en varias macrorregiones. La construcción de hospitales de campaña es importante, tanto en lugares donde históricamente existen lagunas asistenciales, como también en aquellos donde ya se observa una presión por parte de la demanda. El tercer mensaje se refiere a la organización por regiones de los servicios de salud que, a pesar de ser adecuada en situaciones de demanda habitual, en momentos de pandemia, este diseño implica desafíos adicionales, especialmente si la distancia que el paciente tuviera que recorrer fuera muy lejana.